Tuesday, 22 May 2018

American arrogance: North Korea Livid as Trump Administration Suggests ‘Libya Model’ for Denuclearization

Bolton leads push to use Libya as ‘template’
There aren’t really examples of nations with substantial nuclear arsenals giving them up as part of a broad negotiated settlement and it working out. North Korea’s denuclearization, then, is very much uncharted territory. The Trump Administration, however, insists on drawing parallels to Libya.
National Security Adviser John Bolton in particular is trying to draw this comparison, even though there are obvious, dramatic differences between the two situations. North Korea is also furious about the Trump Administration’s talk of Libya, and it’s not hard to see why.
Libya never had functional nuclear weapons, and gave up its equipment in 2003 in hopes of ending its international isolation and reforming its image. North Korea’s interest in diplomatic engagement is one commonality, but makes it a particularly poor example, as Libya never really enjoyed much of a reward.
To make matters worse, by 2011 Libya’s “return” to the international community boiled down to a NATO-imposed regime change. That fact is not lost on North Korea, and indeed they’ve warned time and again that their disarmament must not be like what happened to Libya.
There are real reasons to question whether the US is a good partner for a denuclearization deal, since Libya gave up its weapons only to be attacked by NATO in 7 years, and Iran reached a deal on their nuclear program only for the US to disavow the pact in just over two years.
Bolton’s link to this makes it even worse in North Korea’s eyes, as they know that Bolton has long advocated for US-imposed regime change in North Korea. The North has seen its nuclear arsenal as a check against a US attack, and a comparison that suggests the US is trying to sucker them into giving up the arms first, to make a future attack easier, definitely isn’t going to help that denuclearization cause.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

American arrogance: "Forget the NHS, spend on defence" – US ambassador tells UK

Forget the NHS, spend on defense – US ambassador tells UK

Forget the NHS, spend on defense – US ambassador tells UK
RT | May 15, 2018
Woody Johnson, the US ambassador to the UK, has said that Britain should spend more on military defense at the expense of the NHS, insisting there needs to be ‘trade-offs’ to ensure security and to remain a strong US ally.
Johnson seemed to indicate to journalists assembled in London that, if increasing spending on defense was to the detriment of national treasures such as the NHS, then that was a price worth paying. He said: “Healthcare is always going to be an issue, education is always going to be an issue, transportation and infrastructure are always going to be issues, etc. But how important is it to defend yourself?”
The current owner of American Football team, the New York Jets, Johnson has been serving as Donald Trump’s US ambassador to the UK since January this year. Parroting a Trumpian trope, Johnson warned that his boss doesn’t want to bankroll fellow NATO countries such as Britain to safeguard their security – claiming they needed to pay their way on the world stage.
The US ambassador was talking in relation to Britain’s ambition to buy 138 of the F-35 Lightning II next generation warplanes, as reported in The Times. Some 15 jets have reportedly been bought so far, with military officials committing to an additional 33 by 2025.
It may not come as a surprise to some in the UK that an official from the US, a country which views good healthcare not as a right, but something that should be determined by financial capability, is advising its ‘close ally’ to ditch increased spending on the NHS to ward off supposed threats to national security from ‘enemies’ such as Russia.
Johnson added: “You’re going to have to make trade-offs and go through the emotional and practical and philosophical arguments in terms of what you want to do, what you want to be, how important is defense? How you want to be perceived, by the US, but also by Russia and others?”
The ambassador’s intervention comes on the back of suggestions that there is a black hole in the region of £20 billion ($27 billion) in the UK Ministry of Defence’s budget over the next decade, reports Forces Network.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
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About Time: Europe to ditch petrodollar for Iran deals

The European Union is planning to switch payments to the euro for its oil purchases from Iran, eliminating US dollar transactions, a diplomatic source claimed.
Brussels has been at odds with Washington over the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which was reached during the administration of Barack Obama. President Donald Trump has pledged to re-impose sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
“I’m privy to the information that the EU is going to shift from dollar to euro to pay for crude from Iran,” the source told the agency.
Earlier this week, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that the foreign ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and Iran had agreed to work out practical solutions in response to Washington’s move in the next few weeks. The bloc is reportedly planning to maintain and deepen economic ties with Iran, including in the area of oil and gas supplies.
Mogherini stressed that the sides should jointly work on the lifting of sanctions as an integral part of the historic nuclear deal. “We’re not naive and know it will be difficult for all sides.”
The Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was sealed three years ago in Vienna between Tehran and the P5+1 powers (China, France, Russia, UK, US, plus Germany). The agreement saw decades-long international sanctions lifted in exchange for Iran curbing its controversial nuclear program. On January 16, 2016, the parties to the deal announced the beginning of its implementation.
The lifting of international sanctions gave Iran access to the world’s markets for the first time in nearly four decades. Since then, Tehran has managed to significantly increase its exports of crude.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
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دمشق حرّة حرّة

مايو 22, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– خلال سبع سنوات مضت كان كلّ ما يجري خارج دمشق في كفة وما يجري في دمشق وحولها وعلى الطرقات التي تربطها بمدن سورية ومحافظاتها في كفة أخرى. فمحافظتا دمشق وريف دمشق تشكلان معاً قلب سورية الجغرافي والسياسي والاقتصادي والسكاني والعسكري، ويكاد يكون لكلّ ما جرى خارج هذا القلب وظيفة الاستنزاف لتشتيت قدرات الدولة السورية وجيشها وأجهزة أمنها وحلفائها، كي يتمّ الحفاظ على البنى القادرة على الإرباك في دمشق وريفها. ففي دمشق وما حولها من ريف ومن أطراف حمص إلى أطراف درعا إلى الحدود اللبنانية والعراقية والأردنية والفلسطينية، تتشكّل هذه البقعة التي يتقرّر منها مستقبل سورية.

– منذ تحرير الغوطة بدا أنّ ساعة تحرير الجيوب المحيطة بدمشق أو المنغرزة في قلبها قد دقّت، وأنّ العبث بعناوين مثل مخيم اليرموك، والتقرّب من مقامات دينية كمقام السيدة زينب، لتزخيم ألاعيب الفتن، قد انتهى زمانه، وأنّ الجيش العربي السوري بات قادراً وجاهزاً، ولديه القرار الحاسم لإنهاء هذه اللعبة التي أريدَ لها أن تقتل ما يمكن من السوريين وأن تستنزف ما تستطيع من مقدراتهم وأعصابهم وأرواحهم ودمائهم وأرزاقهم، وأن تشيع حالة الحرب في كلّ أحيائهم، وأن تسقط فكرة الدولة وقدرتها في عاصمتها وفي عيون أهلها، فلا يتبقى منها سوى هيكل عظمي بلا روح، مهما كان هذا الهيكل قوياً.

– يربط كثيرون التصعيد الأميركي والإسرائيلي والسعودي بحسابات ومعادلات إقليمية، وكثيرون يحاولون القول إنّ القضية هي قضية الوجود الإيراني ودور حزب الله، ومستقبل التسويات في سورية. وهذا كله فيه جانب من الحقيقة، لكن الحقيقة الأهمّ هو أنّ التأثير على قدرة الجيش السوري وقراره وتماسك جبهة حلفائه لتأخير وتعطيل قرار إعلان دمشق وريفها مناطق خالية بالكامل من الإرهاب، يبقى الهدف الأهمّ، ووحده يفسّر معنى أنّ كلّ الاستهداف الذي طال مواقع الجيش السوري وحلفائه قد تركز في هذه البقعة من الجغرافيا السورية، منذ حرب الغوطة، فالعدوان الذي قادته واشنطن ومثله الاعتداءات الإسرائيلية كانت جزءاً عضوياً من الحرب التي تخوضها جماعات تتلاقى على العداء لمشروع الدولة السورية، تضمّ داعش والنصرة وجيش الإسلام وبقايا الجماعات الأخرى المسماة بالمعارضة المسلحة، والمرتبطة عضوياً بقرار أميركي سعودي إسرائيلي.

– لا ينفصل الإنجاز التاريخي عما سبقه ومهّد له بالتأكيد، لكن نكهة الإعلان عن الإنجاز تبقى مميّزة، فبمثل ما كان معلوماً أنّ هذه اللحظة قادمة مع تهاوي قلاع الإرهاب في القلمون الشرقي بعد الغوطة، كان للإعلان بالإنجاز قيمة منفصلة رغم التوقّع، ولذلك كما منح نصر الغوطة لهذا الإنجاز نكهته، يمنح هذا الإنجاز هو الآخر لإعلان قمة الرئيسين الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والسوري بشار الأسد نكهة أخرى، فيصير الحديث عن فرصة متاحة لدعوة مَن يريد الالتحاق بعملية سياسية بات معلوماً أنّ سقفها حكومة موحّدة في ظلّ الرئيس الأسد تضع دستوراً جديداً وتمهّد للانتخابات، حديثاً واقعياً، كما يصير السؤال عن مستقبل القوات الأجنبية التي تدّعي ربط مصيرها بالتسوية السياسية، سؤالاً مشروعاً.

– اليوم بمثل ما يستطيع السوريون الهتاف بصوت عالٍ، دمشق عادت حرّة، يستطيعون الاستعداد لمرحلة جديدة تقودها دولتهم في السياسة كما في الميدان، والعنوان، سورية موحّدة بجيش واحد هو الجيش العربي السوري ورئيس واحد هو الرئيس بشار الأسد، ولا مكان لاحتلال ولا لانفصال، مهما كانت عوامل التمويه والتورية، زمن يبدأ وزمن ينتهي، وقد وجب أخذ العلم.

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River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Made in USA Chemical Weapons, Containing Nerve Agent, Are Still Being Tested on Gaza Civilians

Made in USA Chemical Weapons Are Still Being Tested on Gaza Civilians Text
by Ariyana Love
The Israeli Occupation Forces carried out their most brutal massacre in Gaza yesterday, since the beginning of the Great Return March demonstration, beginning March 30th.
Once again, Israel tested a new kind of chemical weapon on civilians, according to The Central Commission for Documentation and Pursuit of Israeli War Criminals.
The “strange” and “unknown” gas, which contains a nerve agent, was dropped by Israeli drones onto protesters at yesterday’s demonstration.
Head of the commission Imad Al-Baz told Quds Press:
“We do not know the kind of gases which were used for the first time,” he said, “but we took cultures from the blood and urine of those affected and we expect the results will be shocking.”
The white gas has been reported by mainstream media as “tear gas,” but the symptoms are too severe to be standard tear gas. Gaza Doctors and medical professionals say the white gas contains a nerve agent which is causing severe suffocation, seizures, hours of unconsciousness and even coma.
According to the International Commission to Support Palestinian Rights (ICSPR) in Gaza, the gas has been used repeatedly during the Great Return March and dozens of people have entered into a coma as a result of inhalation.
The ICSPR added that the chemical weapon gas canisters read, “made in the USA.”
It is estimated that over 1000 people suffered inhalation of this chemical gas in yesterday’s demonstration. They were treated with oxygen at the medics tents. Gaza’s medical volunteers were unable to keep track of the exact number of victims they treated yesterday for the chemical gas inhalation, because the victims were coming in too rapidly. As soon as a patient stopped convulsing, their bed were given to the next patient.
The more extreme cases experienced suffocation and seizures which lasted about 20 minutes. The pain caused by the chemical weapon is so excruciating that the victim throws their body violently against the floor or against anything, to try and escape the pain.
Since international law prohibits the use of nerve agents to be used in tear gas, it’s obvious that this is not typical tear gas and media should not be reporting it as such.
After 2:00 a.m. this morning, 8-month-old baby girl, Anwar Ghandour passed away from inhaling the nerve gas yesterday.  A total of 8 children were killed yesterday, 7 of those children were executed with kill shots to their heads and chest. 
Palestinian journalists covering the demonstration are still being targeted and assassinated by Israeli snipers, in an attempt to prevent them from reporting on Israel’s war crimes and field testing of the banned, chemical weapons.
The majority of civilians that were wounded by live bullets and were received in Gaza hospitals, were intentionally injured in the knee region, where vital structures are present (sciatic nerve, popliteal vessels and the joint itself). Injury in this area leads mostly to paralysis of the leg and lifelong disability.
“I believe that the damned Israeli snipers are well trained not only to kill innocent people but also to make them suffer for their whole life,” said Gaza Doctor, Fadel Naem.
Below is a breakdown of yesterday’s massacre in numbers.
61 martyrs
2771 Injuries
8 martyrs are children One of them is girl.
One martyr of paramedic
203 injuries from children,
12 journalists injured
78 women injured
40 critical cases,
76 dangerous cases,
945 medium condition,
1204 live bullets,
133 injured by shrapnel,
79 Injuries in the neck and head,
161 injuries in the top,
62 injuries to the back and chest,
52 injuries in the abdomen and pelvis,
1055 in the lower limbs
On a lighter note, Gaza protesters managed to shoot down two of the Occupation’s drones yesterday, with fire crackers of all things! These drones were being used by Israel, to drop the chemical nerve gas onto civilians. Previously, Gazans had succeeded in downing one of the drones, using a slingshot.

Ariyana Love

Ariyana Love is Director of Occupy Palestine TV and Middle East Rising (TLB) news channels. She is a Goodwill Ambassador to Palestine, founder of an international foundation, a human rights defender and activist.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Fifteen Thoughts About israel

1. I hate writing about Israel. The accusations of anti-semitism which necessarily go along with literally any criticism of that nation are gross enough, but even worse are the assholes who take my criticisms of the Israeli government as an invitation to actually be anti-semitic. They really do hate Jews, they really do think that every problem in the world is because of Jews and they post Jewish caricature memes and calls for genocide in the comments section on social media and it’s incredibly gross and I hate it. But the Israeli government keeps committing war provocations and massacring Palestinians, so it’s something I’ve got to talk about.
2. Anti-semitism (or whatever word you prefer to use for the pernicious mind virus which makes people think it’s okay to promote hatred against Jewish people) is a very real thing that does exist, and I denounce it to the furthest possible extent. Anti-semitism is also a label that is used to bully the world into accepting war crimes, apartheid, oppression, and mass murder. Both of those things are true.
3. There were dozens of Palestinians killed and well above a thousand injured in the Gaza protests over the US moving its embassy to Jerusalem yesterday. I haven’t found any report of so much as a single Israeli injury. The only way to spin this as the fault of the Palestinians is to dehumanize them, to attribute behaviors and motives to them that we all know are contrary to human natureTo paint them as subhuman orc-like creatures who are so crazy and evil that they will keep throwing themselves at a hail of bullets risking life and limb just to have some extremely remote chance of harming a Jewish person for no reason. This is clearly absurd. A little clear thinking and empathy goes a long way.
4. Trump could have prevented all this violence by doing what previous administrations had done and keeping the US embassy in Tel Aviv. Experts warned that this would happen. Trump ignored them. He is ultimately responsible for the mounting pile of corpses resulting from this provocation.
5. The Trump campaign was given $25 million by billionaire oligarch Sheldon Adelson (the largest campaign donation made by anyone to any candidate), who provided a further $5 million for Trump’s inauguration. Adelson is a sociopathic pro-Israel hawkwho once called on the US to drop a nuclear bomb on Iran. He was present at the opening of the Jerusalem embassygetting what he paid for.
6. Any position on Israel that is determined by words allegedly spoken by dead men thousands of years ago is intrinsically invalid. Saying the Jewish people are more entitled to Israel than those who were living there seven decades ago because of some superstitious voodoo written in obsolete religious texts is not an argument.Religious freedom is important, and it’s important to be able to believe whatever you like, but your beliefs do not legitimize the brutalization of other people. If you murder someone in the name of Allah, you have murdered someone. If you kill 58 people because you feel some ancient scripture entitles you to a particular section of dirt, you have killed 58 people. Your internal beliefs do not give you a free pass for your egregious actions upon others.
7. Israel is very dangerous and completely unsustainable, but its interests are aggressively promoted by powerful plutocrats and lobby groups. It’s like if fracking was a place.
8. A nation that can’t exist without nonstop war and violence is like a house that can’t stand without nonstop construction work. If your house needs a large construction team working around the clock seven days a week to keep it from collapsing, you should probably either move or consider a new architectural design.
9. A nation that can’t exist without nonstop war and violence is not a nation at all, (looking at you too America) it’s a decades-long military operation with a few suburbs sprinkled on top. And that is exactly how Israel has functioned since its creation: as a nonstop disruption campaign that the post-World War Two western victors dropped on top of the Middle East just as humanity hit new heights of oil dependence. By 1967 Israel came within inches of a possible third world war with America’s only rival superpower, the Soviet Union, and today we have Israel leading the charge in the western empire’s regime change agendas against Iran and Syria. It’s been a consistent pattern.
10. There’s good conspiracy theory and there’s bad conspiracy theory. People who say America controls Israel or Israel controls America are engaged in bad conspiracy theory. We don’t live in a world where the lines between nations mean anything to those with real power; in reality “Israel” and “America” are both purely conceptual constructs which only exist to the extent that people believe in them. There is no actual “Israel” which can exert control over an actual “America”, and vice versa. It isn’t nations and governments pulling the strings of real power in the world, it’s a class of plutocrats who aren’t ultimately answerable to any government. This class of plutocrats uses governments like Israel, the US, the UK, and the KSA to advance its agendas to exploit, loot and plunder the rest of humanity.
11. The western empire is a cluster of tightly allied nations held together by contracts and manipulation which often function more or less as a single unit on foreign policy, war, intelligence, trade, etc. What we call Israel is functionally just the Middle Eastern disruption wing of this empire. The people in control of this alliance place no special value on Israel beyond its usefulness in advancing plutocratic agendas in the Middle East.
12. People make a big deal about Zionism in conspiracy circles, but Zionism is just one more tool of manipulation used by the elite class which only ever cares about power. The people who are actually calling the shots in this world don’t care about Judaism or the Jewish people; Zionism is just a set of ideas they use to move people around. They use Christian fundamentalism, Islamic fundamentalism, white supremacy and secular liberalism in the same way. It’s always about acquiring more power for the western oligarchs, and their insatiable drive in this pursuit is how they wound up at the top of the western power structure. They’ll use any set of beliefs to manipulate the masses toward this end.
13. Since Israel plays such a crucial role in the agendas of the western power establishment for such a key strategic region, it should be no surprise that the people who lived on that land before Israel was dropped upon them get trampled underfoot. As far as the powerful are concerned, the Palestinians are no different from the animals whose habitats are destroyed by a new military base, or the whales that get killed by navy sonar experiments. They’re a nuisance to be swatted away.
14. The reason for the extreme brutality that is being used against the Palestinian demonstrators appears to be the same as that used by the Chinese government in the Tiananmen Square massacre or the lynchings of the segregated American south: to send a message. That message is “Here is how we will deal with you whenever you hold these demonstrations.” They’re quashing the protests so violently and so aggressively not out of self defense, but to dissuade such protests in the future. All they have to do is be brutal enough to convince the Palestinians that such protests aren’t worth the cost of life, and whole generations could be dissuaded from future protests.
15. This brutality is exposing the true face of the western empire, a trend that we are seeing all over the globe in myriad ways. Despite the best efforts of the mass media machine, people are waking up to what’s really going on

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

If Any Other Country Was Shooting Civilians Like israel, The US Would Be Calling For Invasion By Now

Rachel Blevins — Activist Post May 14, 2018
idf shooting civilians
The death toll in Gaza increased dramatically on Monday as Israeli Defense Forces opened fire on thousands of Palestinian civilians, killing 41 and injuring at least 1,700, and the United States’ response served as a reminder that if the governments in Iran, Syria, North Korea or Russia had done the same thing, the U.S. would be calling for a full-scale invasion right now.
It is hypocrisy at its finest, especially considering the fact that the U.S. has a history of cheering on and aiding protests against foreign governments. In fact, when the mainstream media began sharing reports of protests in Iran in December 2017, President Trump took to Twitter to cheer on the dissidents.
“The people are finally getting wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and squandered on terrorism,” Trump wrote, claiming that the United States was “watching very closely for human rights violations!

Does that same logic not apply when thousands of Palestinians are standing up for their rights on the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli government is committing human rights violations? Trump’s silence is deafening, and it also serves as a reminder he has fallen into line with the same U.S. foreign policy standards that have been adopted and expressed by his predecessors.
When the U.S. launched its campaign to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, it went beyond just cheering on protesters, and it began launching multi-million-dollar programs to arm and train the protesters, even with the knowledge that many of them were extremists who would go on to strengthen radical groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
The U.S. has also looked the other way in Saudi Arabia where the government is accused of a host human rights violations—including fueling genocide in the poorest country in the Middle East—and it regularly executes civilians who have been accused of protesting, after denying them a fair trial.
The United States only seems to care about oppressive governments who commit human rights violations when those governments are not considered “close allies.” The double-standard is painfully evident in Gaza as the bloodiest day in months comes to a close.
Reports from the Health Ministry in Gaza claimed that several of the 41 Palestinians killed on Monday were teenagers, and as many as 1,700 civilians are now left suffering from injuries after Israeli Defense Forces opened fire on protests near Israel’s border fence.
This comes in addition to the dozens of Palestinians who have been killed and the thousands who have been wounded by Israeli sniper fire in recent weeks. While Israel has falsely claimed that every man or teenage boy who participated in the protests was a “militant” for Hamas, and deserved to die, there was one civilian death that was particularly notable.
Yaser Murtaja, a Palestinian photojournalist, was wearing a jacket that clearly said “PRESS” when he was shot in the chest and killed by an Israeli sniper on Friday. As The Intercept noted,
Either the Israeli sniper could not clearly see who was in the rifle scope—in which case the claim that the use of live fire is precise is shown to be untrue—or the soldier intentionally fired at a journalist, which is a war crime.
While Israel has justified the killings by claiming that their soldiers opened fire because the suspects “attempted to infiltrate” the Israel-Gaza border, a disturbing video was leaked last month that showed multiple Israeli men celebrating after a sniper targeted and shot a non-threatening man who was standing in a field on the other side of their border fence.
A man is seen standing motionless on the other side of the barrier as another man and a small child walk past him. Another man remarked, “I can’t see because of the wire” and then said, “there’s a little boy there,” noting the presence of the child.
The sniper then pulled the trigger and fired one shot, striking the Palestinian man who was standing still and was making no attempt to do anything that could have threatened the soldiers who had been observing him from a distance.
Cheers erupted from the Israelis after the Palestinian man was shot and then collapsed on the ground. The man filming the shooting can be heard saying, “Wow, what a video! Yes! Son of a bitch. What a video, here, run and get him out of there. Of course, I filmed it.”
Rachel Blevins is an independent journalist from Texas, who aspires to break the false left/right paradigm in media and politics by pursuing truth and questioning existing narratives. Follow Rachel on FacebookTwitterYouTubeSteemit and Patreon. This article first appeared at The Free Thought Project.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

العبادي وجنبلاط مثال على حصيلة الحركة السعودية

مايو 21, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– ليس الموضوع المطروح الآن تقييم حركة السيد مقتدى الصدر في العراق وقد فازت بمكانة مميّزة في الانتخابات الأخيرة، بخطاب وميراث للسيد الصدر يجمعان إلى موقفه السبّاق بالدعوة لمقاومة الاحتلال تميّزه بالابتعاد عن الخطاب المذهبي ومكافحة الفساد، إلى علاقته المستجدّة بالسعودية وموقفها العدائي من إيران وقوى المقاومة، بحيث ربط الصدر مصير الحكومة الجديدة بعد الانتخابات بما يتخطّى شرطه السابق باستبعاد تكتل رئيس الحكومة السابق نوري المالكي الذي يتهمه بالفساد والطائفية، ليشمل الحظر تكتل الفتح الممثل لقوى الحشد الشعبي التي كان لها الفضل بالنصر على داعش، والتي ليس لها في قصر السياسة من أمسِ عصر الانتخابات، وقد سبقها التيار الصدري بالتمثيل النيابي والحكومي ويحمل مسؤولية أكبر منها عما آل إليه الحكم في العراق، بما جعل الحظر مشروعاً تقاطع فيه الصدر مع السعودية بخلفية العلاقة المأزومة مع إيران.

– الأكيد أنّ الرهان السعودي كان واضحاً على تشكيل تحالف يضمّ تكتل سائرون بقيادة الصدر مع تكتل النصر بقيادة رئيس الحكومة حيدر العبادي، وفقاً للمعادلة ذاتها، إبعاد حلفاء إيران عن المعادلة الحكومية في العراق، على أن يجري اجتذاب تكتلات نيابية تضمّ الحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني وحزب الحكمة بقيادة السيد عمار الحكيم وتكتل الوطنية بزعامة إياد علاوي لتشكيل أغلبية حاكمة تنضمّ إلى صفوفها الكتل الصغيرة تلقائياً، والأكيد في المقابل أنّ بيضة القبان في المعادلة كان العبادي وموقفه، وقد تسنّى للعبادي أن يقيم الحسابات الدقيقة، وأن يدرس الفرص والتوازنات، ويستمع للمبعوثين من القوى المحلية والإقليمية والدولية، ليكوّن موقفاً واضحاً، قبل اتخاذ القرار.

– الحصيلة التي وصل إليها العبادي تقول برفض عرض الصدر بحكومة تستبعد الحشد الشعبي والمالكي ويكون عنوانها مواجهة إيران، أو حتى الابتعاد عنها، أو إغضابها، وقد بنى العبادي هذه الحصيلة على ثلاث نتائج هي: الأولى أنّ قضية تشكيل الحكومة شأن إجرائي ينتهي مع توقيع مراسيمها، لكن تمكين الحكومة من ممارسة الحكم شأن سياسي يومي ومستمرّ تعوزه موازين قوى تجعل الحكومة التي يتمّ تشكيلها على الورق، حكومة موجودة في الواقع، والثانية هي أنّ الحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني وأحزاب أخرى أوصلوا للعبادي تمسكهم بالتفاهم مع إيران للمشاركة في أيّ تكتل نيابي. فالعلاقة بإيران جغرافيا سياسية محلية وليست جغرافيا سياسية إقليمية فقط، والثالثة هي أنّ تكتل العبادي نفسه مكوّن من أفراد وليس من أحزاب، ونصفه سيتفكك إذا سار بخيار عنوانه الخصومة مع إيران. وفي حصيلة الحصيلة خرج العبادي بموافقة الصدر على حكومة توافق تضمّ الجميع، وخصوصاً تكتل المالكي وتكتل الحشد الشعبي.

– في لبنان جرى توقيت حركة سعودية بالعقوبات على حزب الله، وبالنشاط الدبلوماسي والسياسي على كتل ونواب وقادة، تحت شعار تضييق الخناق على حزب الله، وخلق مناخات تسهم بإضعاف وهج حصاده الانتخابي وحصاد حلفائه، وما وصفه الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله بتوفير الحصانة للمقاومة، وتوفير بيئة مناسبة تفاوضياً لرئيس الحكومة سعد الحريري بوجه حزب الله، بعد تكليف الحريري تشكيل الحكومة الجديدة. ومحاور الحركة لا يحققها تحصيل الحاصل الذي يمثله موقف القوات اللبنانية، ولا الأمل باجتذاب مستحيل لرئيس المجلس النيابي نبيه بري، والحركة محصورة بثلاثة محاور، الأول هو التيار الوطني الحر والثاني هو النائب وليد جنبلاط، والثالث هو النواب الذين عادوا للمجلس النيابي من الطائفة السنية على حساب تيار المستقبل، وكانت للسعودية خطوط وخيوط على هذه المحاور الثلاثة.

– على محورَيْ التيار الوطني الحر ونواب الطائفة السنية جاء الإفطار السعودي كافياً وافياً لإعلان الفشل بغياب كليهما عن هذا الإفطار، سواء كان الغياب قراراً سياسياً لهم، أو احتجاجاً بروتوكولياً، أو رسالة سعودية لهم، فهو يكشف أزمة في العلاقة في عنوان علني ومناسبة تحرص السعودية كثيراً على تظهير موقعها الجامع فيها، وقد أصيبت بالفشل. وهذا سيكون كافياً لتظهير كيف ستسير الأمور بعدها، سيصير تطبيع العلاقات فيه سقفاً للطموح، فكيف بالتعاون في قضية عنوانها بحجم العلاقة بحزب الله، لها من الجذور في تاريخ وسلوك المعنيين ما يكفي لمعرفة نتيجة أيّ محاولة للفكّ والإضعاف؟ أما على محور النائب جنبلاط فمحاولات التطبيع تنجح وقد تنجح لاحقاً وتتوّج بزيارة ملكية جنبلاطية إلى الرياض، لكن جنبلاط يضع نقاطه على حروف العلاقة مع السعودية من بوابة خصوصيته واحترامها. العامل الأهمّ في هذه الخصوصية العلاقة بمن يصفه بحليفه الأول في لبنان، الرئيس نبيه بري، وصولاً لترجمة هذا الموقف في انتخابات نائب رئيس مجلس النواب بتوزيع أصواته بين مرشح القوات اللبنانية ومرشح التيار الوطني الحر النائب إيلي الفرزلي لأنه يحظى بمباركة الرئيس بري.

– السعودية في لبنان والعراق، مال وإعلام وسفارات وزيارات، حركة بلا بركة.

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Al-Assad & Putin: Opening new phase الأسد وبوتين: افتتاح مرحلة جديدة

الرئيس بوتين يستقبل الرئيس الأسد في سوتشي

Al-Assad & Putin: Opening new phase

مايو 20, 2018

Since the beginning of the war on Syria, the meetings which bring together the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad form pauses for new stages in the course of this war. At every time the accurate considerations rule these stages and lead to success. This is clear through reviewing the curved paths of war, some of which were very dangerous as the day when the US fleets were mobilizing off Syria, and some were very complicated as the decisions of the military resolving in Aleppo, Deir Al Zour, Boukamal, and Eastern Ghouta, and some were very sensitive as the dealing with the problematic relationship with the Kurdish and the Turkish positions.
Now the summit between the two presidents takes place after the qualitative victories achieved by the Syrian Arab army supported by its allies at their forefront Russia, these victories made the open area under the control of the Syrian state, it stretches from the southern border line which is under the control of the armed groups led by the American-Saudi- Israeli tripartite and represented by the Jordanian agent towards the northern border line which is under the control of the armed groups led by America and Turkey. It was striking during the military victories that the role of the Syrian army in the battles has become the main factor without a need for ground participation from the allies but only in limited and particular cases. This indicates that the state and its institutions have recovered on one hand, and the influence of these rolling victories on the will of the armed groups versus the high moral zest enjoyed by the Syrian army on the other hand.
The bilateral drawn by the new summit in the light of Astana meetings and the American absence is the activation of the political process and the preparation for the withdrawal of the foreign forces. The linkage between the two goals was clear in the words of Putin and Al-Assad at the beginning of their meeting. Putin said that the momentum of the political process paves the way for the withdrawal of the foreign forces, while Al-Assad said that there are countries that do not aim at the process and the success of the political process, therefore the attempt will reveal which of these two goals must be achieved first to pave the way for the other.
In previous times, the Russian-Syrian relationship witnessed managing of such problems, when Moscow was planning for a truce or for calming areas accompanied by Damascus, it discovered that the only option is what has been already proposed by the President Al-Assad ” the military resolving” so it adopted it. This time Moscow and Damascus will have the opportunity to go together towards forming the committee which was decided in Sochi to discuss the constitution and to open the file of the withdrawal of the foreign forces from Syria. The positions of the international parties especially Washington and Ankara will reveal whether is it possible to achieve any political progress suggested by the words of the opposition delegation in Astana with the announcement of the regret of holding weapons and the seek to take over the responsibilities of the Syrian government, or that these words will remain without interpretation in abandoning the impossible ceilings of the political solution.
Today the issue is Turkey. The participating groups in Astana and the attempt will grant the opportunity to the Russian-Turkish relationship and its ability to provide forces that allow making a breakthrough in the political solution towards unified government under the presidency of the President Al-Assad in preparation for a new constitution and elections or maybe, the opening of the political and non-political files of the foreign presence in Syria will return to be a priority?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

الأسد وبوتين: افتتاح مرحلة جديدة

مايو 18, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– منذ بداية الحرب على سورية وحولها وفيها واللقاءات التي تجمع الرئيسين الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والسوري بشار الأسد تشكّل محطّات للكشف عن مراحل جديدة في مسار هذه الحرب. وفي كلّ مرة تبدو الحسابات الدقيقة حاكمة هذه المراحل التي لا تلبث أن تتكلّل بالنجاح. وهذا واضح من مراجعة مسارات متعرّجة للحرب كانت بعض لحظاتها شديدة الخطورة، كيوم حشد الأساطيل الأميركية قبالة سورية، أو شديدة التعقيد كقرارات الحسم العسكري في حلب ودير الزور والبوكمال والغوطة الشرقية، أو شديدة الحساسية كمثل التعامل مع إشكاليتي العلاقة بالموقفين الكردي والتركي.

– هذه المرّة يأتي لقاء القمة بين الرئيسين بوتين والأسد على خلفية الانتصارات النوعيّة التي حققها الجيش العربي السوري مدعوماً من حلفائه، وفي مقدّمتهم روسيا، وأتاحت خلق مساحة مفتوحة تحت سيطرة الدولة السورية هي في طريق الاكتمال، تمتدّ من الشريط الحدودي الجنوبي الذي تدير الجماعات المسلحة فيه ثلاثية أميركية سعودية إسرائيلية يمثلها الوكيل الأردني، وصولاً إلى الشريط الحدودي الشمالي الذي تدير الجماعات المسلحة فيه كلّ من أميركا وتركيا، وكان لافتاً في سياق تحقيق الانتصارات العسكرية أنّ منسوب دور الجيش السوري في المعارك صار العامل الرئيس من دون الحاجة لمشاركة ميدانية من الحلفاء إلا في حالات محدودة وخاصة، وما يؤشر له ذلك من استعادة الدولة ومؤسّساتها عافيتها من جهة، ولكسر الانتصارات المتدحرجة إرادة القتال لدى الجماعات المسلحة مقابل دفق معنوي عالي يتمتع به الجيش السوري من جهة مقابلة.

– الثنائية التي رسمتها القمّة الجديدة في ضوء اجتماعات أستانة، والغياب الأميركي عنها، هي تفعيل العملية السياسية والتمهيد لإخراج القوات الأجنبية. والربط بين هذين الهدفين واضح في كلمتي بوتين والأسد في افتتاح اللقاء الذي جمعهما، فقد قال بوتين إنّ تزخيم العملية السياسية يمهّد لإخراج القوات الأجنبية، فيما قال الأسد إنّ هناك دولاً لا تريد للعملية السياسية التقدّم والنجاح، وسيكون على التجربة أن تكشف أيّاً من الهدفين يجب خوض المعركة لتحقيقه لفتح طريق الهدف الآخر.

– في المرات السابقة شهدت العلاقة الروسية السورية إدارة لمثل هذه الإشكاليات، عندما كانت موسكو تضع خطط السير بالهدنة أو مناطق التهدئة وتواكبها دمشق، وتكتشف موسكو أنّ الخيار الوحيد هو ما سبق وطرحه الأسد بالذهاب للحسم العسكري. فتقرّر مواكبته. وهذه المرّة سيكون أمام موسكو ودمشق فرصة السير معاً في مسارَيْ التحرّك نحو تشكيل اللجنة التي تقرّرت في سوتشي للحوار حول الدستور، وفتح ملف انسحاب القوات الأجنبية في سورية بالتوازي، وستكشف مواقف الأطراف الدولية، وخصوصاً واشنطن وأنقرة، ما إذا كان ممكناً تحقيق تقدّم سياسي أوحى به كلام وفد المعارضة في أستانة مع الإعلان عن الندم على حمل السلاح وخطأ السعي لتسلّم مهام الحكومة السورية، أم أنّ هذا الكلام سيبقى دون ترجمة في التخلّي عن السقوف المستحيلة للحلّ السياسي.

– القضية اليوم هي تركيا، فالجماعات المشاركة في أستانة تحت عباءتها، والاختبار سيمنح للعلاقة الروسية التركية ومدى قدرتها على توفير نسبة قوى تتيح إحداث اختراق في الحلّ السياسي نحو حكومة موحّدة في ظلّ الرئيس الأسد والدستور الحالي تمهيداً لدستور جديد وانتخابات، أم أنّ فتح الملف السياسي وغير السياسي للوجود الأجنبي في سورية سيعود إلى مرتبة الأولوية؟

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