Sunday 15 February 2009

Who won the war?

Who won the war?
Israeli atrocities in Gaza will live on across generations, giving birth to new waves of resistance. This is the essence of defeat, writes Mamdouh El-Adl

Psychological warfare is as old as mankind but has developed over the years from a natural and simple human behaviour to an important weapon guided by science and technology. Mind control is a broad range of psychological tactics to subvert an individual's control of his own thinking, emotions, behaviour and decisions. Propaganda is a deliberate and systematic attempt to influence perceptions, cognition and behaviour to achieve the response desired by the propaganda maker. Psychological warfare (PSYWAR) is defined by the US Defense Department as "the planned use of propaganda and other psychological action to influence the opinion, emotions, attitudes and behaviour of the enemy in such a way to support achieving national objectives."

Propaganda or psychological warfare was used as far back as Alexander the Great. He used to leave some of his men in conquered cities to control them, introduce Greek culture, oppress dissident views, and to interbreed. This influenced the psyche of occupied people to conform. Genghis Khan, who conquered more territories than any other leader in the human history, placed as his top priority defeating the will of the enemy. When attacking a city or village he used to demand submission with the threat of total destruction if they refused to surrender. In modern times, Adolf Hitler and Winston Churchill both made use of propaganda. Recently, psychological warfare was used in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and in the Israeli war on Gaza.

GAZA'S PROTAGONISTS:

An important question: Who was more successful in the Gaza psychological war -- Hamas or Israel? I expect the majority would be inclined to answer Israel, as a well-developed state should be alert to this important weapon, assuming that Hamas, a group of fighters using primitive arms and home-made rockets, do not pay attention to this strategic tool. Nonetheless, the war did not finish yet and its military results have not been evaluated. Before examining the question above more closely, we may benefit from a brief review of both Hamas and Israel.

Israel, the nuclear Zionist state, was established on the land of Palestine in 1948. The Israeli army (the so-called Israeli Defence Forces, or IDF) fought in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982 and 2006. In composition, Israel is made up of immigrants from all over the world. It is the only nuclear power in the region. Israeli officials have regularly called for Israel to be a purely Jewish state, requiring driving the remaining Palestinian citizens who live within 1948 borders (so-called Arab Israelis) off their land.

Hamas, the Islamic resistance movement, was established in 1987 and is considered related to the well known Islamic movement, the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas's founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, was wheelchair bound and assassinated by the Israeli army in 2004. Hamas's main political leaders include Khaled Meshaal, Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Al-Zahhar. Hamas runs extensive social programmes and gained high popularity in Palestine by establishing hospitals, education systems, libraries and other services.

THE PROPAGANDA WAR STARTS:

Israeli Foreign Minister and ex-Mossad spy Tzipi Livni visited Egypt invited by President Hosni Mubarak 25 December 2008 and threatened military action to change the situation in Gaza. On Saturday 27 December, Israel started its war against Gaza.

Israel planned the war on Gaza for between six to eight months earlier with four main goals:

  • to end Hamas control and the firing of home-made rockets on Israeli settlements;
  • to lift the morale of the Israeli army defeated in the 2006 Lebanon War and to restore its image as invincible -- one of the most important Israeli propaganda ploys used to scare Arab leaders for decades;
  • serve towards winning pending Israeli elections;
  • prepare the stage to end forever talks about a Palestinian state and to evacuate -- or "transfer" -- 1948 Arab citizens from their occupied Palestinian land (currently called Israel) as repeatedly stated by Israeli leaders, including Livni.

To be sure, Israel succeeded in inflicting very heavy civilian casualties in the densely populated Gaza Strip and huge damage to its infrastructure.

However, the real question is: Did Israel break Palestinians' will to resist and regain occupied Palestine? Did Israel succeed in the use of psychological warfare?

Before the war on Gaza, Israel maintained a prolonged siege on Gaza, with the closure of Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza used to strengthen the siege. It refused to speak to Hamas unless it recognises Israel. It engaged in frequent meetings with Mahmoud Abbas -- Hamas's main Palestinian political foe. It worked to present Israel to the international community as a victim of terrorism, identifying Israel as an extension of Western democratic civilisation. It made its declaration of war on Gaza from Cairo, de facto capital of the Arab world. And it announced that some Arab rulers requested that Israel finish off Hamas, inferring an alliance between Israel and those Arab rulers.

During the Gaza war, Israel engaged in indiscriminate air strikes and heavy artillery bombing of civilian homes and mosques in an attempt to break the will of the people and force them to surrender. It bombed Al-Aqsa TV station (Hamas TV) to silence it. It also dropped propaganda leaflets addressed to Gazans and asking for their help, stating: "We are not fighting you but fighting against Hamas". Phone calls made by Israeli army staff urged Palestinians to inform on Hamas fighters. Selecting personnel to speak to the Western media, to ensure they are of Western sensibility and speak the language in question, Israel attempted to gain acceptance for its actions. It presented Hamas rockets as a dangerous weapon terrorising Israeli "civilians" (mostly settlers). Israel also repeatedly claimed that its army was doing its best to avoid civilian casualties, regretting that some were unavoidable as Hamas militants were hiding amongst civilians.

HAMAS'S STRATEGY:

On Hamas's side, six months of truce that ended on 19 December 2008 was counterproductive (crossing points remained blocked, the siege on Gaza continued, Israeli attacks on Gaza continued, Palestinian prisoners remained in detention and custodial sentences were served on Hamas members of the Palestinian parliament). All this would normally be expected to weaken the position of any resistance movement in face of its supporters and public opinion. However, it did not break Hamas and its will to resist.

Hamas remained persistent and accepted no compromise on any of its main aims including: an end to the siege, recognition of the right to fight the occupation, the realisation of Palestinians' right to return to their land. Hamas remained realistic about the UN Security Council, Arab League, the heads of Arab states, and the Arab summit. Rather, Hamas counted on public opinion (Arab, Islamic and worldwide).

In Gaza, fighters from all groups stood together fighting the Israeli army. In the West Bank, Palestinians -- including most of the Fatah movement -- announced their support of Hamas and demonstrated in its support. Hamas rockets continued firing even during the aggressive Israeli bombing of Gaza. Al-Aqsa TV continued to broadcast despite being hit by Israel air strikes. Hamas supporters worldwide used websites and blogs to expose Israeli crimes.

Table showing relevant points of comparison between Israel and Hamas:


BASIC RULES OF PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR:

The development and progress of events indicate that Israel failed. It lost track on some of the basic rules of psychological warfare, which can be summarised as follows:

- True economy of force entails an indirect approach where psychological defeat is achieved without ever having to engage the opponent in direct combat (according to Liddel Hart). Israel did the opposite.

- Supreme excellence is not to win 100 victories in 100 battles, but to subdue your enemies without even having to fight them (according to Sun Tzu). Israel always seeks military victory at any price, as seen in the Gaza war and in previous wars.

- A wise man learns from his experience; a wiser man learns from the experience of others (according to Confucius). The Gaza war indicated that Hamas learned from the 2006 Lebanon war while Israel did not appear to learn anything.

Indeed, in its war on Gaza, Israel used all its possible means of psychological warfare to no avail. Moreover, some of Israel's tactics were directly counter-productive, lending support to Hamas in the propaganda war and with public opinion worldwide. For example, Israel prevented foreign media correspondents from entering Gaza to ensure no coverage of its crimes during the war. This inevitably made Al-Aqsa and Al-Jazeera TV the main source of Gaza news coverage. It was a huge blow to Israel when public opinion internationally saw the huge damage and civilian casualties caused. Wesley Clark, a retired US general and prominent military analyst, believes that restricting press coverage of the war was a big mistake.

Livni, Israeli foreign minister, instructed senior Foreign Ministry officials to engage in an aggressive international public relations campaign to gain support for Israeli operations in Gaza. In addition to Israeli officials in Israel, in its embassies and consulates, Livni requested recruiting people who speak Arabic, Italian, Spanish and German, opening an international media centre in Siderot to which foreign media and diplomats would be invited. Livni said, 27 December: "Israel expects the support and understanding of the international community as it confronts terror and advances the interest of all those who wish the forces of peace and co- existence to determine the agenda of this region.

So far,

  • Hamas did not yield to the Israeli, regional or international pressure that either supported the occupier or made no differentiation between the powerful occupying aggressor and its vulnerable victims.
  • Hamas remained persistent and determined to resist.
  • Hamas gained much popular support and respect from the Palestinians, Arabs and public opinion worldwide.
  • Israel secured a major moral defeat, and undermined its propaganda about being democratic, civilised and fighting terror, as witnessed in demonstrations around the world.
  • On the diplomatic front, this was the first time calls to expel the Israeli ambassador were heard in the UK from the British public and from members of parliament. Mauritania and Venezuela cut relations with Israel.

Another Israeli mistake was their wish to press Palestinians under siege to turn against Hamas. It is well known in psychology that when a group is at risk people become more integrated and supportive of each other, rather than turning against one another, and are likely to take more risks and extreme decisions. This has been seen in Gaza when all factions stood together to fight the Israeli army.

In the West Bank, all Palestinian groups, including Fatah, did the same. All over the Arab world popular demonstrations shaming and pressing so-called moderate Arab regimes increased. Demonstrators believed that Hamas represented their will, their dignity and right to resist. All feel that Hamas belongs to them and they belong to Hamas. In the UK, about 150,000 demonstrated in front of the Israeli embassy, 10 January, shouting loudly: "We all belong to Hamas!" Remember, this is London, not Cairo.

Phone calls by Israeli army staff to Palestinians urging them to inform on Hamas fighters also failed. One derisive Palestinian called the Israeli army. A recording of this is floating around the blogosphere, making fun of the Israeli tactic and constituting a Palestinian counter-offensive (you can listen to this recording on: http:// tinyurl.com/cn9bef).

WHO WON, WHO LOST:

Evidence of Israeli moral, strategic and PSYWAR failure in Gaza equals that during its 2006 war on Lebanon. Israeli stated aims changed over the time, from ending Hamas to weakening Hamas to stopping rockets to reducing rocket numbers. Israeli officials pretended not to target civilians and to minimise civilian casualties. The media and human rights organisations exposed Israeli crimes, documenting that they killed civilians, including women, children and non- combatants, with abandon. By the end of the Gaza war, the Israeli army had killed about 1,400 and injured some 5,500. Remember, before this war and by the illegal siege around 300 ill civilians died due to lack of medicine -- nearly 25 per cent of those killed by direct Israeli attack.

Israel mistakenly believes that by time new generations of Arabs will forget about the occupation of Palestine and Israel will be accepted. But the memory of nations does not forget like the memory of individuals getting older. New Arab and Muslim generations are more determined to fight to end the occupation. Throughout history, no military power defeated a resistance group that had faith. Freedom fighters forced colonial powers to yield and accept defeat, not the opposite. Israel, however, does not want to understand and insists on moving against the tide of history.

* The writer is a consultant psychiatrist in the UK and secretary of the British Arab Psychiatric Association (BAPA).

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